The final matchday of the Bundesliga season 2024/25 has come. While some decisions are made, others are still pending. Who will play in the Champions League, Europa League, or Conference League next season? Who will play in the relegation round against one of the top teams of the second division? The pending decisions and a prediction in an overview.
| Photo: Granada, CC-by-SA 4.0 |
Borussia Dortmund have had an awe-inspiring run. At the beginning of February, Niko Kovac became the new BVB coach, when the club was only in position eleven. Nobody or only a few people believed in a turnaround with the former Bayern Munich coach, but he delivered. Dortmund are unbeaten for seven Bundesliga matches in a row and have collected 19 out of 21 points.
This leads to their current fifth place in the table. With 54 points, they are only one point behind Freiburg and three points behind Frankfurt. Dortmund’s big advantage is that Freiburg and Frankfurt will play each other on the last match day. This means that Dortmund have to win by at least two goals against the already relegated Holstein Kiel to qualify for the Champions League, regardless of the other match.
If Freiburg lose against Frankfurt, a draw would already be enough for Dortmund in that case. Dortmund won’t need help from any other team for the Champions League qualification, while Freiburg and Frankfurt will have an intense fight for the highest European Cup. The loser of this fight will most likely play in the Europa League next season.
Prediction: Dortmund & Freiburg will make it to the Champions League.
Mainz & Leipzig are fighting for the Conference League
A long time ago, it looked like Mainz could probably qualify for the Champions League, but it feels like they couldn’t deliver under this pressure. Some weaker performance and matchdays later, they have to fight for the Conference League spot against Leipzig.
While a qualification for the European Cup would still be a great result for Mainz 05, it would mean something like a solatium for Leipzig. It’s their chance to save their weak season at least a bit, although it would still be their worst Bundesliga position since their promotion to the league.
If Leipzig want to qualify ahead of Mainz, they ‘just’ need to collect more points than Mainz on the last match day. The goal difference is clearly with Mainz, that’s why this is the case. Leipzig therefore need to win at home against Stuttgart, and Mainz will face Leverkusen. Strong opponents for both teams could mean a last-minute decision.
Prediction: RB Leipzig will make it to the Europa League.
Who is going to play the relegation play-offs?
The relegation of Bochum and Kiel is clear, but it’s still unclear who will have to play in the relegation play-offs. Currently, Heidenheim are in position 16, just three points behind Hoffenheim and St. Pauli. Since the club from Hamburg have a much better goal difference, it’s pretty unrealistic that they will end up playing the relegation round. So it’s a decision between Hoffenheim and Heidenheim.
Heidenheim have the easier opponent. Frank Schmidt’s team will face Werder Bremen at home. For Bremen the season is almost over, that’s why Heidenheim have a high chance to beat them. On the other side, Hoffenheim are facing Bayern Munich, at home too. Even though they’ve already won the German championship, they seem to be very professional and don’t want to lose any points either. That’s why licensed bookmakers in Germany see the Bavarians as the clear favorites too. A tough opponent for Hoffenheim.
Part of the truth is also that Hoffenheim still have the better goal difference. There is a gap of six goals between the two teams. Of course, if Bayern Munich is really playing it seriously, then it could be possible for Heidenheim to get really close to position 15 and to stay up in the league, but they significantly need help for it.
Prediction: Heidenheim will play the relegation play-offs.
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